Both sources indicated that Florida State’s E.J. Manuel, who was selected ahead of Smith at No. 16 overall by Buffalo, was far more impressive in terms of his personality and maturity. ”Manuel gets it, he gets the whole big picture of what it takes to lead a team,” one of the league executives said.

So the Bills got the mature poised player, and the Jets got the guy who thinks he’s Tom Brady already?

Deal.

The post One of the Reasons Buffalo Chose EJ Manuel Over Geno Smith appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford – Widely considered to be the second best tight end in this draft, Ertz is a solid receiver who had a breakout season last year with 898 yards and six touchdowns. He is good route runner that separates him well in space, but is considered an average-to-below-average athlete for the position. His Scouts Inc. scouting report literally says “Not a partier and not a drinker”, which means he probably has his head on straight, but might not fit in with Buffalo (lulz).

Menelik Watson, T, Florida State – Part of me thinks this won’t happen, part of me thinks this is the kind of guy Buddy would like. He’s extremely long and athletic, much in the mold of other tackles the Bills have taken recently (Zebrie Sanders and Chris Hairston). I feel like Buddy only draft offensive lineman that have some physical characteristic that you can’t find on the waiver wire. The problem is that Nix usually drafts players with significant experience as football players. Watson has started only one year at Florida State, and has only played two years of football in his life (Watson spent most of his life in England).

Robert Woods, WR, USC – Woods was highly productive wide receiver for USC, although he got overshadowed by teammate Marqise Lee in his final season. Woods was a playmaker in every sense of the term for Souther Cal, but doesn’t quite possess anything physically to wow scouts. He has good height but definitely below elite (just under 6’1), has adequate speed but is not a burner, and has the jumping ability to make plays but certainly isn’t Randy Moss. I think he’s going to be a good receiver in the NFL, but might not be the fit for the Bills’ system that Justin Hunter is.

Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU – The Bills usually stay reasonably clear of guys with potential character issues, but Buddy loves his cornerbacks and loves his southeastern athletes. Mathieu could be (and probably will be) an excellent nickel corner in the NFL and also a dangerous return man. I don’t think the Bills will use one of the second round picks on him, but if he’s around for their third round pick I think Buddy might take the risk with him.

Brian Winters, G, Kent State – Winters started all four years at Kent State including two years at right tackle and one at left tackle. Has short arms that probably make him more of a guard prospect. He is intriguing because Buffalo brought him in last week after the visiting process was basically thought to be over. He’s physical and an above-average run and pass blocker for this group of guards.

Da’Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech – Very productive receiver who formerly played for the Tennessee Vols. From an on-the-field perspective he might be my favorite receiver in the draft. I truly believe that if he was still playing for Tennessee and didn’t have off-the-field problems he would have been taken ahead Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter. Unfortunately, he was arrested outside of a bar before he even began his Tennessee career, and later failed three school-administered drug tests (he says it was marijuana). He is another player that the Bills brought in for a private workout, probably to see if he has the character and work ethic to make it in the NFL.

The post Six Players the Bills Could Draft on Day Two appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

Before I begin breaking the prospects down, the first thing that stood out to me is that Buffalo didn’t bring in a single offensive lineman, interior defensive lineman or cornerback. Offensive line and cornerback have both been discussed by fans and media as positions to target early in the draft. I don’t believe either position will be picked on Day One or Two unless a) Dee Milliner is available or b) Buffalo is absolutely in love with Chance Warmack and think he will go to the Pro Bowl for the next ten years.

Quarterbacks

Prospects: Geno Smith (West Virginia), Matt Barkley (USC), Mike Glennon (NC State), E.J. Manuel (Florida State), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas), Tyler Bray (Tennessee), Landry Jones (Oklahoma), Matt Scott (Arizona), Jeff Tuel (Washington State)

We have already written a wonderful article and recorded a stupendous podcast dedicated to the quarterback position, so I’m not going to dedicate too much time to statistics here. Read those. But the fact is that they had nine different quarterbacks visit, and that doesn’t even include Ryan Nassib, who the coaching staff clearly thought they knew well enough not to waste one of their 30 official visits on him. Buddy and the staff have brought in quarterbacks the last few years, as Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Brock Osweiler visited in 2012, and Cam Newton, Christian Ponder and the Blaine Train visited in 2011. Nix also said that 2011 was a perfect year to draft a quarterback, but alas, the Bills have not spent a draft pick on a quarterback since Levi Brown in 2010. So the Bills have hosted quarterbacks for these pre-draft visits in the past. But NINE quarterbacks is a lot. Considering that every highly-rated quarterback prospect has been brought in by the team, I still believe that the Bills will be taking one in the first or second round. Smith and Barkley are most commonly mentioned as the candidates to be first rounders, but those two along with Glennon, Manuel, Wilson and Nassib could all go within the first two rounds (Bray and Jones conceivably could as well). It’s really anyone’s guess on who the quarterback will be, but I think it’s safe to say that this year it’s going to happen, and probably early. At times, I feel like it’s going to be Nassib, but at the same time, why use up almost a third of your visits on quarterback if you’re confident in him?

Fullback

Prospect: Kyle Juszczyk (Harvard)

Juszczyk is ranked by many pundits to be one of the top fullback prospects in the draft. He played some tight end and H-Back at Harvard, but primarily worked out at fullback at his Pro Day. I’m not putting too much stock into this, but if the Bills do draft him, it will probably be in the fifth or sixth round. Considering that the Bills only have six draft picks right now, drafting a fullback might be more of a luxury pick for them when taking into account their needs. Fun fact: the last player drafted out of Harvard was Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2005. Yay.

Wide Receiver

Prospects: Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee), Justin Hunter (Tennessee), Da’Rick Rogers (Tennessee Tech), Ryan Swope (Texas A&M), Russell Shepard (LSU), Zach Rogers (Tennessee)

Receiver is the most interesting position to me in terms of who Buffalo worked out. I was expecting them to bring in more first round-type prospects for workouts, but it turns out that Patterson is the only player of this group who is projected to go in the first round. He could conceivably slip to the second round, as I’m not sure scouts and coaches are sold on him having the Randy Moss-type potential that some people were labeling him with early in the draft process. I think that label may have come with analysts betting that somebody was going to fall in love with his potential, but I don’t really see him as a threat to go in the top 10 anymore. Interestingly enough, Patterson’s teammate Justin Hunter is bigger and was more productive. He could go just about anywhere in the draft, but my guess would be early in the second, a la Brian Quick or Stephen Hill.

Da’Rick Rogers is also a former Tennessee Volunteer, who was essentially kicked off of the team for failing three drug tests (after getting arrested for disorderly conduct outside of a bar before he even began his career there). Rogers was an All-SEC second team receiver as a sophomore, but after those troubles he transferred to Tennessee Tech, where he registered 1207 yards and 11 touchdowns. Most consider him a third round prospect, but it’d be interesting to see where the 6’2 Rogers would be without the off-the-field issues. Zach Rogers is the fourth former Tennessee receiver they brought in. He was largely unproductive in college, but had showed good size and speed in his Pro Day and is probably a late-round prospect. Ryan Swope wowed everybody at the combine with a unexpectedly-blazing 40 yard dash time. I had my eye on him before that, as he served as a very competent receiver/security blanket for Johnny Football. Russell Shepard, object of at least one man’s affection, is a converted quarterback who also tried some defensive back at his Pro Day. He was not particularly productive as a receiver in college, and I’m beginning to think that LSU could never figure out the right position for him (much like Dorin Dickerson at Pittsburgh, or for the Bills, really).

So what does this all mean? I think the Bills are skipping wide receiver in round one. Although there has been a little bit of talk about using their first pick on Tavon Austin, based on the players they brought in, I think they are looking to spend a second or third round pick on receiver. Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers could both be classified as the type of ‘open when they’re not open’ receiver that Buddy has talked about. But just to play devil’s advocate to my own opinion, Buddy has said that he uses the interview to make sure guys check out personality-wise rather than physically. Considering the strange backgrounds and playing histories for some of these players, maybe he just wants to check out some of the more curious cases to see if they’re NFL-ready.

Tight Ends

Prospects: Vance McDonald (Rice), Ryan Griffin (Connecticut)

Another surprise of the visiting time period was that the Bills only brought in two tight ends. Tight end is a self-admitted need for the team a) because of the two tight end sets that Head Coach Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett frequently employ, and b) the questionable health of Scott Chandler. McDonald left mouths agape as he showcased a rare combination of size, speed and strength at the combine. Though he went largely under the radar as a college player for the Rice Owls, he had three consistently productive college seasons. Griffin was also productive as a two-time second team All-Big East player. I still think the Bills will go for a tight end in the first four rounds of the draft, but this might be where they go off the (pre-draft visit) board with a player like Gavin Escobar or Jordan Reed.

Outside Linebacker

Prospects: Dion Jordan (Oregon), Jarvis Jones (Georgia), Barkevious Mingo (LSU)

This is one position where the Bills essentially brought in exactly who I thought they would. From the beginning of this draft process (especially since defensive coordinator Mike Pettine got on board) I’ve believed that the Bills were either going to take an impact pass rusher in the first round or wait a while on one (or not take one at all). They brought in three of the best pass rushers in this draft, though they all have their negatives. Jones was clearly the most productive of the three players with 14.5 sacks (leading the nation), but many draft scouts have wondered if he has a real position on the field. Neither Jordan or Mingo was even close to as productive pass rushers as Jones, but both present ideal physical frames for a dominant pass rusher. I think the Bills would be satisfied with any of these players at number eight, but I’m not sure any of them are number one on their list.

Inside Linebacker

Prospects: Alec Ogletree (Georgia), Kevin Minter (LSU), Jamie Collins (Southern Miss), Ja’Gared Davis (SMU)

In my opinion, the Bills want an inside linebacker to compete in camp, but they don’t necessarily see it as a major need. I think this probably rules out the talented Ogletree (expected to go in the twenties) unless he falls to the Bills’ pick at 41. Minter could have improved his draft position by staying in school, but had an excellent 2012 season that will probably make him a Day Two selection. There is debate over what position Collins is going to play, but he had an excellent senior season with 92 tackles, 10 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. Davis was a peculiar player to bring in, considering some pundits don’t think he’ll even be drafted. He filled up the stat sheet at SMU, but is considered too small and slow by most.

Safeties

Prospects: Kenny Vaccaro (Texas), Phillip Thomas (Fresno State), Cooper Taylor (Richmond), Jonathon Meeks (Clemson), Malcolm Bronson (McNeese State)

This group here tells me exactly what I think the Bills are doing at safety. I’m completely ignoring Vaccaro here, who I believe will be taken somewhere between the Bills’ first and second round picks. Buddy (along with many other GMs) has come out and said that this is an extremely deep year for safety and you could draft one that you liked in just about any round. Considering how Buddy drafts pretty strictly based on value, I’m guessing that a round one safety is out of the question (especially when you consider Aaron Williams’ recent move to the position). The other four safeties are considered Day Three-type picks, and I think one of them may be a Bill by the end of next weekend. My guess would be Taylor, who was productive as a freshman for Georgia Tech before transferring to Richmond to continue a solid FCS career.

Possible Scenarios

I’m going to give two possible drafts that I think the Bills may do (really, depending on when they want their quarterback):

Draft One

1st – Matt Barkley QB

2nd – Justin Hunter WR

3rd – Gavin Escobar TE

Day 3 – one of the safeties we brought in, OL, Jamie Collins LB (in some order)

Here, they get Barkley (who I believe will be available), they get their ‘open when he’s not open WR’ in Hunter, and they get a tight end who could be an important key to their offense immediately.

Draft Two

1st – Barkevious Mingo OLB/DE

2nd – Ryan Nassib QB -> Tyler Wilson QB

3rd – Da’Rick Rogers WR

Day 3 – Ryan Griffin TE, one of the safeties we brought in, OL

The Bills would get a potential impact pass rusher in Mingo, a quarterback to compete with Kolb (Nassib unless he’s not available, then I would guess Wilson is next; I really don’t think EJ Manuel will be on the board here), and a big impact receiver with potential in Rogers.

Of these two drafts, I think the first one is the most likely. I change my mind every day, but today I’m thinking that the Bills like a quarter at 8, and my guess is that it’s Barkley considering who good of a fit he is with Head Coach Doug Marrone’s west coast system.

The post 2013 Pre-Draft Visits: Why They’re Important appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

-There were at least two instances by my count where Nix started a statement before correcting him self mid sentence. The first was when he referenced the notion that people thought they would lose 13 games to get Matt Barkley, but now you can “probably- I mean you might” be able to get him later. To me this betrays the fact that Buffalo thinks there’s a strong chance Barkley will be available at pick 8. The other instance was when a reporter mentioned TE as a need, before Buddy interjected “There is-there possibly is- a need.” I’ve been beating the TE drum this entire offseason, and the Bills’ courtship of TE Fred Davis means I’ll be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t come away with a tight end from this year’s deep class. My guess is Gavin Escobar, but they’re all in play.

-Aaron Williams is moving to safety, which was one of the first personnel decisions to come from Pettine and the defensive coaching staff. Everyone seems to like this news, mostly because it means Williams won’t be playing corner much any more. But I think it’s a great opportunity for the (hopefully) former whipping boy of the defense. Mike Mayock, among others, had Williams rated as his number one safety in 2011, and Williams biggest problems at CB were related to pivoting, turning and running, and looking back for the ball. All of those things are much much easier to do at safety with the play usually in front of you. Williams is still a big, talented guy; the Bills needed safety depth, and it’s better than just cutting him next year. Good move.

-Buddy mentioned that Levitre’s departure doesn’t have anything to do with how they approach the draft and that if they draft Chance Warmack, it’ll be because they really like Chance Warmack. I have a hard time believing that a front office that’s turned waiver wire journeyman like Kraig Urbik and Chad Rhinehart into NFL starters is going to use the number 8 pick on a guard.

-Back to QB for a minute. My belief through this process has been that the specific flavor of West Coast Offense Doug Marrone is going to run will require a QB with quick decision making and superior anticipation, which describes two slangers’ more than the rest: Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley. They are the only two that ran the West Coast Offense in college, and would be the most ready to command the offense early. Geno Smith on the other hand, doesn’t necessarily lack these skills, it’s just that Dana Holgorsen’s Air Raid offense  didn’t require the same type of anticipation throws that someone like Marrone’s did, thus the scouts got less opportunity to see them. Not that Buffalo will have the option, but it wouldn’t come as a surprise to this humble blogger if the Bills pass on Geno Smith if Barkley and Nassib are available (which they likely will be).

-Nix mentioned that the deepest positions/best positions to get a mid round player were safety, wide receiver, and tight end, which happen to conveniently align with the Bills needs list. In rounds 2-4, I’d be surprised if we don’t select a player from at least 2 of those position groups.

-Tayvon Austin was brought up, who is probably the most unique player in the entire draft. Nix re affirmed that the Bills are looking for a “open when he’s not” outside receiver, neither of which describe Austin particularly well (Nix said there are 3 or 4 of those). HOWEVAH, putting Austin in the same categories as traditional receivers is a disservice to the exceptional talent the West Virginia phenom possesses. Austin is a ridiculously talented athlete who would be better described as “playmaker”- one of a handful of prospects where the term is not a cliche. If the Bills aren’t thrilled with a QB at 8, taking Austin and letting Hackett dream up ways to utilize Austin with the line-up-anywhere-break-the-game-open guy already on the roster, CJ Spiller, is tantalizing.

The post 2013 Buffalo Bills Draft Luncheon Insights appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

Nassib is a tough guy for me to evaluate on a few levels. As a fan of Syracuse Football, I’d always thought Nassib did a solid job, but his senior season he took it to another level, leading the Orange back from a 2-4 start to a Pinstripe Bowl birth and eventual win, against none other than Geno Smith. Relative to where the expectations surrounding Nassib were his sophomore year, this was truly remarkable; it wasn’t hard to see why the quarterback was shooting up draft boards.

The problem is that as much I liked the offense as a Syracuse fan, is the same head football coach, same offensive coordinator, and same quarterback going to work in the NFL? On the other hand, it worked to a degree for Miami with Ryan Tannehill following Mike Sherman as his OC, and I’d much prefer Marrone and Nassib to those two.

In any event, quarterback is the most abstract of all the positions to evaluate, so depending on what intangible variables an evaluator puts emphasis on, two different observers could come away with vastly different opinions. I think that’s what were seeing from the observations in this years draft class. Usually, it’s just a simple talent x performance record= prospect ranking function that determines where the quarterbacks are slotted. This year, most of the 8 or 9 draftable quarterbacks have big holes in their performance somewhere in their careers, and other than maybe EJ Manuel (who had maybe the spottiest collegiate performance of all), none are athletic specimen. So what’s really separating these guys are the details.

And that’s where you start to see how Nassib could be looked at as the top guy depending on what you value. For one, Nassib’s anticipation of route development was excellent, and along with Matt Barkley, is one of two quarterbacks who look like they are pro ready in that category (largely because they are the two quarterbacks who played in West Coast, i.e. pro, offenses in college). Nassib moves through his reads very quickly, and that’s something that was both required by Marrone’s offense in college, and will absolutely still be critical to success in HCDM’s pro offense.

Another area where Nassib looks good on tape is his handling of pocket pressure. All of the top NFL quarterbacks play the game a little bit differently, but one thing they are all excellent at is how they manage a collapsing pocket. Tom Brady is no nimble Nicholas, but I’m sure you can recall countless instances where he seems to bend over to form a 90 degree angle to escape a pass rusher before standing back up with the pocket behind him to deliver the throw cleanly. No matter if a QB’s team has a dreadful offensive line (Arizona) or one of the better ones (San Francisco), a quarterback must be able to move around and avoid pressure at the NFL level.  Of all the quarterbacks this year, Nassib looks the best at handling a would be sacker.

A common dissent against Nassib from Bills people is that those two of Nassib’s attributes, along with leadership, work ethic, and MOXY, were also possessed by Ryan Fitzpatrick, and look how that turned out. My response is that Fitzpatrick had horribly restrictive physical limitations that don’t apply to Nassib (or even Barkley, for that matter). Fitz’s frame and short arms required a monumental body half heave in order to throw a 15 yard out, and when a player has to exert 90% of their throw power to make sure the ball gets far enough, it becomes a huge challenge to also make the throw accurate. This was Fitzpatrick’s essential shortcoming, and it was not enough enough to overcome all the stuff that Gailey loved about him (intelligence, quick reads, etc). It, pretty clearly, does not apply to Nassib. The Orange QB may not be Jeff George, but neither is Tom Brady. See below:

But perhaps the strongest reason to believe that Nassib is a leading candidate is the simplest; Head Coach Doug Marrone would know exactly what he’s getting. A GM once noted that the draft evaluation process is essentially an effort to remove doubt. Prospects appear, and it’s the team’s job to gather as much information and eliminate uncertainty, so that they can make sound evaluations. Questions about work ethic, leadership style, personality, and mental capacity, due to their ambiguity, are often very difficult to ascertain about a college prospect (look at the disagreement about Geno Smith), yet at a position like QB, they are imminently important. Nassib, on the other hand, is the player Marrone has worked with directly the most over the past 3 years, so the Bills have close to perfect information regarding Nassib.

However, there is a grittier, uglier side to that relationship, that perhaps Marrone’s (hypothetical) enthusiasm about Nassib’s intangibles could overshadow physical limitations, especially switching back to the bigger, faster pro game. Also, as a Syracuse fan, I loved what the Orange built offensively over the past 3 years. However, if you asked me this past fall if  I loved it so much that I would want the 3 biggest elements (or more, if the Bills draft Alec Lemon or Marcus Sales) to have the same positions in Buffalo, I would have cackled at you before realizing that it may be far better than the trio of Gailey, Modkins, and Fitzpatrick.

All things considered, Marrone’s direct relationship with Nassib is more of an advantage. Remember, Marrone worked with Drew Brees previously, and Greg Paulus  after that, so he’s seen everything from a Hall of Fame shot caller to an underwhelming Duke point guard. Marrone should have a pretty good idea of where Nassib fits on the spectrum.

When you further consider that Marrone’s offense will require high level coverage reading, anticipation, and quick decision making, it’s much less far fetched to thing Ryan Nassib is in play at pick number 8.

The post How Does Marrone’s Relationship with Nassib Affect Bills Draft Plans? appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

Geno Smith – West Virginia (6-2, 218)

Geno Smith is the most complete QB in the draft.  He had a great offseason and a very good pro day, where Smith showed that he possesses a legitimate combination of NFL size, mobility, and arm strength. Geno is uniquely accurate and possesses the touch required to succeed.  He has a very quick release and can get the ball down field in a hurry. Smith looks to pass first when going through multiple reads. If he sees no one open, he knows when to take off and use his running ability.

Smith ran a spread offense from the shotgun his entire career in West Virginia, so he is going to have to adjust to a pro style offense from under center (which he did as a sophomore). The quarterback can be quite streaky like he was in 2012.  Despite that, there is nothing not to love about Smith’s demeanor. He can stand in the pocket and make every throw, which allowed him to put up gaudy stats on an under performing West Virginia team. The Bills would be lucky to get such a talent at 8 overall. Some people think Smith is not the best QB in the draft, but in my opinion he clearly is. Doug Marrone’s offense would flourish with a multifaceted talent like Smith. However, some may argue that Marrone did beat Syracuse three times in his tenure with Syracuse. Will the Bills put any water in that, and elect to draft someone that DID beat him (Barkley, twice)?  I do believe Smith goes to Jacksonville 2^nd overall. The Raiders are another option, although they are nearing a trade for Matt Flynn.  I do not truly believe we will have a chance at him, but if we do! Game on, he will be our pick.

Smith has had a private workout and meeting with the Bills.

Projected Round: 1

Player Comparison: Aaron Rogers

Matt Barkley - USC (6-2, 227)

Matt Barkley could be the best fit for the Bills in the entire draft. That, combined with my belief he is a top 15 pick by NFL standards, leads me to believe he will be our pick at 8. But I thought he had bad arm strength? That’s not 60 yards in the air or anything. Barkley doesn’t have the world’s best arm like some of the other candidates (Bray, Smith, Wilson, Glennon). He has almost an identical throwing motion and arm comparison to the ever-so-popular Drew Brees. They both have a knee bend that helps with their throwing power, as seen below:

Barkley is a very strong decision maker and would take advantage of every talented player on the field, much like he did with his USC receivers Marquise Lee and Robert Woods. Would it be far fetched to think the Bills could take Barkley in the first and Woods in the second round? Hey, the Colts did it with Andrew Luck and Colby Fleener. Barkley’s character and intangibles were evident in his decision to stay and school to go for national championship instead of going to the draft, where he was projected to be a top 5 pick. He is well versed in a pro style, west coast offense, and has the skill set to make Doug Marrone’s mouth drool. Marrone had said before Syracuse’s game against USC this year that he thought Barkley was more talented than Andrew Luck. Many think he would Barkley would be the perfect QB for Marrone’s system, and thus the Buffalo Bills. However, some wish he had a better arm, was more athletic, and somehow grow a few inches. I don’t think any of these things are a big deal. We saw Brees’ skills grow and develop, much like Matt Barkley ‘s would.

The Bills have a private workout and meeting set with Barkley.

Projected Round: 1

Player Comparison: Drew Brees

http://youtu.be/7U1dIfiKrQk

Tyler Wilson - Arkansas (6-2, 215)

Tyler Wilson is perhaps one of the most interesting prospects in the draft. He has the arm strength, athleticism,  gunslinger attitude, and can straight up play the game.  He has good size and strength to be a pocket passer and he can certainly take a hit, which he did frequently last year at Arkansas. This toughness showed a bit of his leadership ability by guiding a team deserted by the mental Bobby Petrino. Wilson has very impressive arm strength and hits receivers in stride. As far as recognition, he is very good at reading any type of defense and can just throw the ball from any release point. Wilson’s motion is a bit weird (much like Rivers) and he can under throw deep patterns. He holds the ball low and will be vulnerable to the infamous NFL strip sack fumble. Wilson showed the promise to be a top 10 pick after his 2011 campaign, but due to injuries and a much worse team, he took a slight step back. However, there is no denying his talent. I will even go as far as to say he will be good in the NFL in some respect.  When it comes to the Bills, he might be the type of player Marrone can rely on to run multiple different sets including the zone read and west coast offense.  I believe he will be the third QB off the board and be picked between 15 and 30. The Bills would have to move back up into round 1 from the second to get him, or snatch him with their 8th pick if Barkley and Smith are gone (or if they like Wilson more than the former). I could only dream about snatching him with pick 25-30 and drafting Patterson at 8. That is my favorite scenario for the first two picks.

He has not yet been worked out/scheduled to work out with Buffalo.

Projected Round: 1

Player Comparison: Phillip Rivers

http://youtu.be/FDt6saeTxHM

Ryan Nassib - Syracuse (6-2, 227)

As we all know, the Bills have been linked to Ryan Nassib on every front. Maybe this has to do with Marrone? Maybe it has to do with his stellar season? Maybe it has to do with Hackett? Maybe it has to do with the fact that Syracuse is in our backyard. In any event, Nassib has been called by many scouts and analysts one of the best QBs to come out this year. He is a guy who just does everything well. He has the arm strength to make every throw on the field, but is not elite in this category like others. He is a smart player who does a nice job with fakes, and holding defenders. Frankly, Nassib is just a gamer, much like Tony Romo. After Romo’s large contract, this could bode well for Nassib’s playing style. He is a very underrated player in this draft class and could go anywhere from 20-70.  He is a very good interview guy as well. Being a Bills fan, he looks like and reminds me of Ryan Fitzpatrick, especially with the slight hitch that he possesses. However, he could be a Tony Romo like surprise for someone in the second round. I really don’t see him being worse than Andy Dalton.

Buffalo has not had a workout or meeting with Nassib, although Marrone in no way would need one.

Projected Round: 2^nd

Player Comparison: Tony Romo

EJ Manuel – Florida State (6-4, 237)

EJ might be the most promising dual threat QB this year. He has a boatload of athleticism, agility, and speed. He can run the zone read, and has the arm to flick the ball around. He has a tall and long frame, with a solid build. However, he holds the ball too long and needs to practice his decision making. He also looks to run too quickly. Manuel was 25-6 as a starter, showing that he can be a winner. He has had a really good offseason, and was probably the most impressive QB at the Senior Bowl. He is one of my favorite QBs this year, and I would not be disappointed if the Bills made him our QB for the 2013 season by picking him in the second round.

Buffalo had a private workout and meeting with Manuel. He came here on a visit.

Projected Round: 2^nd

Player Comparison: Josh Freeman

Mike Glennon – NC State (6-7, 225)

Mike Glennon is very tall for the position and can see over defenders with ease. On the other hand, he looks really skinny on the field, and will need to beef up to stay healthy. Glennon has a strong passion for the game, but has a lot of learning to do with reads and progressions. Glennon has all of the physical tools coaches dream about. He had the strongest arm of all 6 candidates from the Senior Bowl. He can make any NFL throw asked of him. He has marginal athleticism and would really need to be protected in the pocket. Glennon could be a steal if teams are more concerned about mobility and let him slide. I don’t believe he would be the type of QB Doug Marrone would be looking for, but I would welcome him if he was the one we selected.

He has not yet been worked out/scheduled to work out with the Bills.

Projected Round: 2^nd

Player Comparison: Joe Flacco

Landry Jones - Oklahoma (6-4, 225)

Landry Jones was a very productive college quarterback. He owns a very strong NFL arm that could really become elite soon. He is a truly mechanical QB that relies on his footwork and throwing motion over everything else. Jones throws a nice tight spiral, and can hit the sideline throw with ease. He possesses above-average accuracy when settled in the pocket or on the move. When Jones is pressured, he really struggles (much like all quarterbacks). He has really good height, and a nice strong build. The Oklahoma product has experience in the shotgun and under center, which would fit nicely with our system. His release is perfect, and can make the throw over the top. Additionally, Jones already has experience making pre-snap adjustments and audibles. He trusts his arm too much throwing into traffic. Landry needs to not lock on to 1 target as much as he does. Jones is very solid at play action, and can be deadly with the fake. He is a much better athlete than given credit for, which he can use to be successful on naked boots. A lot of people think he might be a can’t miss prospect that just has a lower ceiling than other QBs do.

Buffalo has already worked out and met with Jones.

Projected Round: 2nd

Player Comparison: Matt Ryan

Tyler Bray – Tennessee (6-6, 232)

 Bray has one of the strongest arms in the draft along with Glennon; his throws reveal natural, unteachable velocity. When he is able to step into throws, he is one of the best in the business and is extremely dangerous on post patterns and deep throws, and might be the most dangerous deep passer in the draft. He would be a nice change from the Bills old game manager types that we’ve had recently. He has developed a very quick, yet somewhat awkward release. However, it’s not much of an issue because he’s so big. He sometimes has happy feet, and doesn’t remember proper mechanics. He has marginal escaping skills and mobility, both are a work in progress. Bray has no regards for tight coverage, and will try to gun sling around the field. Bray’s arm and aggressiveness could allow him to step in and be a factor right away.

Buffalo has already worked out and met with Bray.

Projected: 3^rd Round

Player Comparison: Jay Cutler

Matt Scott – Arizona (6-2, 213)

Scott has a very good arm and release for his draft “level” as a later round prospect. He is a dual threat option that might be coming out at the right point with the influx of zone read concepts in NFL offenses. Scott can throw the deep ball very well and can make most throws. He looks to pass first, although he has very good agility if he needs to take off. Scott is always  looking downfield with good ability while on the run. He is ultra-tough, having played through a concussion at one point, and is willing to step up and take a hit. However, he started just 17 games at Arizona and missed one game last year. He needs to learn how to play in a pro offense and how to take snaps under center. Has a slight 3/4 release point which makes his lack of preferred height even more of an issue. Scott needs to put his receivers in a position to make the play. His arm talent makes some of his throws come in hot and high. Scott will require some fine-tuning in the NFL. Do not be surprised if he is taken in the third round, similar to Russell Wilson if a team likes him enough. I truly believe he won’t last past pick 105 (our 4^th).  He is my favorite developmental guy, and really the only one that exists this year. We will be holding a personal workout with him soon, much like the others. With that in mind, I think we have some real interest in him. I think we might need to trade up 10-20 spots from the 4^th to grab him. He will be worth it.

Buffalo will have a private meeting and workout with Scott in a week.

Projected: 4^th Round

Player Comparison: Russell Wilson

Wrap Up

This looks to be a very deep group of quarterbacks; all nine players on this list possess the talent to be elite NFL players at the position. In a very QB hungry league, look for all of these players to come off the board in the top 100 picks. I really don’t believe many (outside of potentially Scott) are on the board much later than the start of the 4^th. Like I have said in our podcast, and many times over twitter, I don’t believe there is a much better year to want a QB at 8. There is no elite talent like Luck, Newton, Griffin, Rivers, Manning, Stafford, Ryan, or Bradford. However there are plenty of capable starters like Dalton, Schaub, or Romo. This is the year scouts can really excel and prove their worth. There are going to be 1 or 2 stars out of these 9. Who will they be? Let’s leave that up to our front office to pick the right one.

BuddyNixon’s Pick(s)

Matt Barkley 1^st round (8) – I believe that Geno Smith will be off the board, and we will turn to the second most polished player  (that is if he is still available). If not, I could see us reaching on a QB here, or taking the BPA and trading up, or using 41 on a QB.

Matt Scott – 4^th round (105) – I truly believe we might be going with two QBs in this draft class to go along with the battle of Kolb vs Jackson. There is no hiding the fact that we like Scott’s versatility and new school style of play. He would be a very good person to groom as a backup to the first a la Washington with Kirk Cousins. If Scott is gone and someone else falls, I could see us using this selection to nab one of the final remaining QBs on this list to supplement our first or second round pick.

The post BuddyNixon’s 2013 Buffalo Bills Draft Preview: Quarterback appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

We’ll begin with tight ends. We’ve been consistent in our opinion that Buffalo needs another tight end, however if Fred Davis ends up signing with us, this position will be of less emphasis in the draft. Regardless, tight ends are versatile, effective players that will be critical to Marrone’s version of the west coast offense. Let’s take a look at this year’s draft class.

Tyler Eifert - Notre Dame (6-6, 250)

Clearly the top overall tight end this year and a guy who figures to go in the middle first round or higher. Eifert was Notre Dame’s main weapon on offense, and the only Fighting Irish player who looked like he belonged on the field with Alabama. When Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley talk about drafting a player who is “open when he’s covered,” Tyler Eifert represents the best chance to get some one like that in the draft. Eifert uses his big frame to create distance between the defender and the ball, even if he has not got separation. However, Eifert is able to get decent separation by being much more fluid and agile than a normal tight end.

In the blocking game, Eifert is solid as well, and gets a good push on defenders. All in all a guy like Tyler Eifert could really help a team like the Buffalo Bills. The problem is other teams will feel the same way, so he would cost the Bills their 8th overall pick or they would have to trade up, so it’s not likely (but not impossible).

Zach Ertz - Stanford (6-5, 249)

Some draft analysts had Zach Ertz ranked higher than Tyler Eifert at certain points this off season. I wouldn’t go that far, but Ertz is almost as promising as a tight end prospect. Ertz has seam busting ability, fluidity and a good pair of hands. Ertz uses the receiving skill of a wide out to torch linebackers and doesn’t drop too many passes. Also, Ertz is a dependable blocker, though he could stand to add some strength in the department. If the Bills don’t wind up adding a tight end in free agency, they should think twice before passing on Ertz in the 2nd round, if he even makes it that far.

Jordan Reed - Florida (6-3, 236)

In some ways Jordan Reed is the most athletic looking tight end in this year’s draft. Reed is very quick for a TE, possessing the ability to push down the field on the seam and quicly pivot in front of a linebacker, making him an ideal player for “Stick” or “Snag,” both West Coast Staples. Like many of the other TEs this year, Reed lined up all over the place, from TE, H-Back, to wide out. Reed is also the most dangerous after the catch tight end in this year’s draft, who has good agility and can make tacklers miss. The questions about Reed mostly revolve around his size and blocking. Reed is only 6′ 2-1/2″ and weighs 236, which limits his ability to really attack as a blocker. Reed generally gets in the right position, but can’t always be counted on to seal off the edge as he may be asked to do in the NFL. Also, his slight lack of ideal size raises questions about whether he can take a shot from a linebacker and still come down with the ball. Reed’s elusiveness and receiving ability should allow him to contribute early in his NFL career, the challenge for him will be blocking well enough to get on the field in potential run situations, as the Bills will likely want their tight ends to do.

Gavin Escobar - San Diego State (6-6, 254)

Like Jordan Reed, Escobar is another tight end that looks and plays like a flanker/TE hybrid (a la Aaron Hernandez) a little bit more than a standard TE. Escobar is longer than Reed, but both receivers are very good receivers. Escobar is particularly good at “high pointing” the ball and making plays in traffic. Another positive is that he can split wide, which is sure to be something that will appeal to evaluators. This is a player who has experience as the focal point of his college offense, and his tape shows a natural sense for finding the ball and coming down with it. In the blocking game Escobar does a decent but not particularly outstanding job. The encouraging part about this “con” is that his long frame has room for him to get stronger without adversely affecting his mobility. Overall, Escobar isn’t a guy you would draft to block, but is absolutely one of the more polished receivers among this years group and guy you can count on to get open.

Dion Sims - Michigan State (6-5, 262)

If there’s a sleeper in the year’s tight end class, it might be Michigan State’s Dion Sims. Sims is very large for a tight end, although not as large as he used to be after losing 25 pounds coming into his senior season. However, as big as he is, Sims doesn’t look any slower or more sluggish than his tight end peers. Sims shows a nice burst of acceleration down the field especially for a guy his size. Combined with his size, Sims has the potential to be a match up nightmare as he can also “post up” defenders and use his wide frame to shield defenders away from the ball. In the blocking game, Sims doesn’t always have the right instincts as to which defender to block. On the other hand, once he can get engaged, Sims does a nice job of powering linebackers backwards. Sims has been banged up throughout his career, missing games for a broken ankle and hand in 2012 and 11, respectively- this will hold him in the mid rounds. But a team willing to take that risk could be rewarded with an athletic talent. If you project Sean Payton’s emphasis on creating mismatches forward to his former lieutenant Doug Marrone, Sims could be an invaluable asset to that end.

Vance McDonald - Rice (6-4, 267)

Vance McDonald is a player with excellent potential that would probably not be ready to contribute any time in the near future. At 6-4, 267, McDonald has excellent size for the position and quickness that allows him to get behind linebacker hook zones in order to attack the seam- something very important to “K-Gun” applications. His smooth route running is also above average for a tight end; McDonald would often split out into the slot as a receiver. However, McDonald has some shortcomings that would give NFL team’s pause, such as poor hands, and average blocking ability. Some have graded him as a 2nd rounder or the 3rd best tight end in this class, but he has to find a way to soften his hand and drop less passes before he’ll have the ability to get on a NFL field consistently.

Travis Kelce - Cincinnati (6-5, 255)

Travis Kelce is yet another player that appears to have excellent talent for the position. At 6-5 with 4.6-7 speed, Kelce is probably a guy that compares to Rob Gronkowski better than any other player in this draft. However, that’s not to say he’s as good, just his style of play as a big, long guy with very good straight line speed is similar. Kelce is also one of the better blockers in this year’s class, and might be the player who blocks the most aggressively. While Kelce has good ball skills and ability to come down with balls while covered, which is necessary considering he doesn’t really do a great job of getting separation. Kelce looks very stiff and has sloppy footwork when running routes, which means he would need some time before he would have the ability to contribute in the passing game. Some of that, like the footwork, is correctable, although agility is much tougher. Kelce seems like a more talented, less polished Scott Chandler in a lot of ways, which makes me wonder if the Bills wouldn’t be as interested due to redundancy.

Wrap Up

This looks to be a very deep group of tight ends; all 6 players on this list possess the talent to be elite NFL players at the position. The first four players are more technically sound players that would be the most ready to come in and be productive immediately. The last 3 project more as long term prospects that will need some refinement.

The post BuddyNixon’s 2013 Buffalo Bills Draft Preview: Tight End appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

Actually, Davis does have some wear and tear, as he is recovering from an Achilles tear he suffered in 2012. However, reports have him ahead of schedule which is why Buffalo isn’t ignoring him.

It’s somewhat of a surprise that Davis is available at all. Washington had expected all along to retain Davis, and Davis appeared to prefer to stay in the Potomac. However, Washington’s offer on the table isn’t enough to keep Davis from having dinner with Doug Marrone, Buddy Nix, and Doug Whaley (I wonder if there’s a Tempo on K Street).

In any event, Davis would be an excellent fit in Marrone’s offense as he has the ability to block well along with the athleticism to stretch the seam, which as we noted earlier will be something that the effectiveness of the Bills offense is going to hinge on.

The other reason Davis would be a solid addition is that the Bills need another tight end to have the ability to run “Ace” formations (two tight end, single back). Ace’s main advantage as a formation is that by trading the lead blocking full back for an extra tight end, the formation is “strong” on both sides, giving an offense the ability to run to either side while having 4 receivers in the event of a pass play. It is neither a pass nor run formation which is very important in not announcing the play pre snap. Additionally, the ability to run or pass effectively out of the same formation greatly increases the effectiveness of play action.

All of this relies on two tight ends that have the ability to block and receive. Currently, the Bills have one, Scott Chandler, who is recovering from an ACL injury (Dickerson and Caussin have shown enough potential to keep the Bills interested, but can’t be relied on). If the Bills are able to complete the deal for Davis, their offense will be much more flexible this year.

The post Buffalo Bills Hot on the Fred Davis Recruiting Trail appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

“…there’ll be two quarterbacks in this draft that will be long-time starters in this league. And that’s a fact.”

This is a very interesting, specific, point regarding the general manager’s opinion of this year’s hotly debated QB class. Some have wondered if there are any quality signal callers at all, but Nix is evidently not one of them.

Perhaps more intriguing is the fact that rather than vaguely saying  that there are some good prospects this year, Nix counted them. Two. One, two. Not three; two. Given Nix’s propensity for candor, it is very difficult not to interpret this number as the truth regarding his belief. So, if Nix thinks there are two viable NFL quarterbacks among this draft, it suggests that they will take that guy at pick eight, if available.

And there’s an excellent chance that will be the case. The conventional wisdom is that Geno Smith and Matt Barkley are the top two prospects. Since only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Arizona would be candidates to select either player ahead of Buffalo, two out of those three teams would need to select Smith and Barkley (or another team could trade up) in order to shut Buffalo out from “long-time starter” territory.

Another possibility is that Buffalo views Tyler Wilson or Ryan Nassib as one of those two players. If current mock drafts are to be deemed accurate, that would all but assure Buffalo gets the chance to draft one of their two guys.

Another reason the quip is revealing is that the Bills haven’t always felt there were that many sure bets on quarterback in the draft. In both 2010 and 2011, all but the top quarterback was available at Buffalo’s first round pick (9th overall and 3rd, respectively). Had Buffalo’s draft team felt there was a “long-time starter,” among the rest of each drafts quarterbacks, it seems unlikely that the Bills would have passed on that player.

“I think the physical part is over-rated. What makes it so hard to evaluate that position are the intangibles. That’s what you try to learn.”

This could be a clue that the Bills are not quite as high on Geno Smith as purported. Smith is clearly the most physically gifted prospect in this year’s class, and has a very live NFL arm. Depending on who you talk to, that is one of, if not THE main reasons he has risen to the top of this year’s quarterback group.

However, it’s difficult to make the argument that Smith is undoubtedly better than his peers in some of the intangible categories such as decision making, leadership, ability to make difficult throws, agressive-but-not-overboard-with-it-ness. That is not to say he is any worse, as intangibles are an extremely difficult thing to measure.

Depending on which type of intangible NFL talent evaluators put the greatest emphasis on, they could conceivably come up with a number of different prospects as the most pro ready. Tyler Wilson and Ryan Nassib are aggressive gunslinger types, Geno Smith is reported to be a gym/film rat in the mold of Peyton Manning, and Matt Barkley seems to have the “charismatic leader of men” type persona. These are all probably somewhat exaggerated media cliches, but the point is that while there is no consensus, the prospects are distinct enough that any could be considered the top prospect by a NFL scout department, provided they are deemed physically adequate (which is important, since the former Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick had most of those intangibles but lacked the talent necessary to capitalize on his “gunslinger mentality”).

Other notes from Nix’s comments:

-Nix didn’t nix the idea of trading for Matt Flynn. I don’t take this is as a sign of interest in Flynn (nor do I rule it out), but more of an indication that Buffalo is looking for another veteran to round out their quarterback stable. Oh hey look, Matt Hasselbeck’s freshly available!

-The Bills are scouting every quarterback and will host 5 or 6 for private workouts. In addition to the QBs mentioned above, EJ Manuel, Tyler Bray, and Mike Glennon are the most likely candidates to round out that group. Anyone else would make us perk our ears up.

-Neither Fitz nor Vince Young are possibilities to return as backups, which I’m sure shocks and saddens you (almost as much as if you knew I’d be making this joke last August).

Want to keep up on up to the second Buffalo Bills news? Follow @BuddyNixon on twitter!

The post Buddy Nix: Draft Has 2 “Long-time Starters” at Quarterback appeared first on Buddy Nixon.

One interesting aspect of these giant events is that since they are so far removed from the action of regular season games, we end up treating them as having the same impact of a game, if not more. Think about it. What did you spend more time previewing, analyzing, and reacting to: last year’s draft, or last year’s week 5 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers?

If you are reading this blog, chances are it was the draft. This is mostly a function of time; NFL games are relatively crammed up against each other while the draft and free agency are spread apart by months. As a result, we end up wanting to “win” free agency or the draft just as much as any game. After all, it is a competition against every other team, and some teams will do better than others. To take it a step further, the teams that sign prescient contract extensions, exhibit self-control via awareness of when to let a player walk, and make productive draft picks are writing the prelude to Super Bowl contention.

The problem is that despite (or perhaps because of) the fact that there won’t be any concrete way to evaluate the productivity of free agency until the regular season begins 6 months from now, everyone must decide who “won” free agency immediately. The model of evaluation is flawed and fairly simple: look at each team’s depth chart, circle the 3-6 thinnest positions, and count how much money is spent and how many players are brought in at each of those positions. Miami had a bum squad of receivers last year? They “really helped themselves” by bringing one of them back and overpaying for Mike Wallace. Detroit couldn’t run the ball well? Reggie Bush is a “great fit in Detroit.” Buddy Nix has only signed one new free agent? He must be old and asleep!

This form of “analysis” is an issue because it is completely unrelated to the steps required to build a roster capable of winning games. Sure, Miami has a receiver that should be able to go downfield and get the ball now, but that assumes they have a quarterback than can accurately throw the rock that deep. And even if Wallace is productive and improves the offense noticeably, will he do it to a degree that justifies his mega contract? Was Miami a deep threat away from competing for a Super Bowl? Even if Wallace does noticeably improve the offense, will it be to a degree that justifies his mega contract and won’t leave Miami saddled with dead money that freezes their ability to keep their roster intact in future years?

Who knows. But the fact is the larger the contract, the harder it is for the player to justify the money they receive. At this point of the argument, a common rebuttal is “who cares if some old billionaire member at Augusta spends a little too much?” Well, a couple such owners, such as Jerrah Jones, Woody Johnson, and Dan Snyder, are essentially having to sit free agency out due to the fact that after a 4 or 5 year hiatus, the cap is back and a major factor in limiting teams’ ability to sign new players (this is especially funny in the Jets case considering departed GM Mike Tannenbaum was a “cap” guy).

In fact, big market, cash rich owners such as the aforementioned specifically structured the new CBA to prevent small market franchises like Cincinnati and Buffalo from sticking the money from TV revenue sharing in their pocket. As a result, NFL payrolls are getting much more even, and will continue to do so. More plainly, Ralph couldn’t be cheap if he wanted to. He must “sprinkle the cheddar,” as it were.

With the newly implemented salary floor that is so close to the cap, prudently structuring contracts and squeezing maximum value out of your roster becomes critical in building a championship team.  The money will be spent one way or another, but as several teams are learning, too much coin on the wrong players  will set a franchise back for years. Arguably the league’s best defensive player on a team that plays in the largest market in the country is about to be traded because the Jets are handcuffed until they can clear cap space. And when you consider Russ Brandon’s mention of implementing “analytics,” this is the first and most important place it will show up. Advanced stats are just tools, the real fruit is in finding undervalued assets, or at least getting market value for the dollars you do spend.

So far, there hasn’t been much of this year’s free agency market. Remember this play?

See number 93 for the Packers, the guy running the wrong way? The Colts just gave him a 16 million dollar deal. Still angry the Bills have sat this one out? (Am I overdoing asking questions as a rhetorical device? ) Of course, it doesn’t matter because Indianapolis has Andrew Luck, and one play isn’t a way to evaluate a player, but this juxtaposition provides a good metaphor for this year’s free agency period- lots of money being spent on non premium players by impatient general managers.

The silver lining in all of this is that the combination of big early money being spent with a somewhat tight cap should provide an opportunity for a team that has money but hasn’t spent it (like Buffalo) to get some help at a relative value. For instance, the cornerback market is flooded with quality players, but has seen the “bottom fall out of the market” as one reporter described. It’s microeconomics 101.

In any event, the point remains that it will be years before we can really do any sort of accurate analysis as to which teams made productive signings in free agency. However, value matters, and the more a team pays a player, the harder it is for that player to live up to the contract. If nothing else, teams sitting this round of free agency out are leaving themselves flexibility both later in free agency and years down the road.

The post Are the Buffalo Bills Winning or Losing Free Agency? appeared first on Buddy Nixon.