Fact Based Hate: Bills Jets Preview

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Updated: November 5, 2011
bills jets

Any time the Bills play the Jets, it’s a big game even if one or both of the teams are lousy. The games tend to be close (last season non-withstanding) and I don’t think I’m the only Bills fan that feels a deeply rooted, gut level disdain for the New York Jets that is more potent than that of any other team. With that in mind, we’ll take a look at some interesting elements to this game.

Marcell Dareus v. Nick Mangold

Marcell Darues has been the best defensive linemen for the Bills all season, but last week was the NFL’s “welcome to Marcell Dareus” moment, as Dareus victimized Washington makeshift center Erik Cook for 2.5 sacks. While Dareus can play anywhere, NT seems to be the best place for him. Even when Dareus didn’t get the sack, Washington had to double him, opening up lanes for other rushers and linemen, which resulted in 7.5 additional sacks.

Dareus will look to continue this success against the Jets, but it will be significantly tougher as Nick Mangold, probably the league’s best center, is back in the line-up after missing several weeks to high ankle sprain. The effect s of the injury haven’t appeared to slow Mangold, and that means it will be a huge test for Dareus.  This should be a great battle all afternoon, and if Dareus can get half the level of production that he did last week, or even consistently command double teams, I’ll consider Dareus to have won this battle.

Jets Run Game v. Bills Defense

Following the previous topic, this battle will determine how effective the Jets offense can be. The Jets run a version of Air Coryell that is predicated on power running and throwing the ball deep. However, the deep ball is only effective once teams need to stack the box to stop the run. Also, in the Jets 3 losses they’ve average only 78 yards on the ground. Overall, the Jets haven’t had nearly as much success on the ground, besting 105 total rushing yards for the first time in their last game against San Diego for 162.

As far as Run Defense, the Bills have followed almost the same pattern. They allowed at least 108 yards on the ground each week, until hitting their stride last week stopping Washington for 26 yards. So both units have been struggling on the year but hit their stride last week. Whichever pattern continues will likely determine the winner.

Bills Receivers v. Jets Secondary

If you read fantasy advice this week, it will likely advise less than better production for Bills WR Steve Johnson due to his matchup with Jets CB Derelle Revis. While I’m not expecting 3 TDs from Steve, I think Johnson’s game will still set him up for a productive game, something along the lines of 60 yards on 5 or 6 catches. The reason is, Steve’s production generally comes as a result of technically perfect route running and well placed attacks on holes in the defensive scheme. While Revis’ all pro level of play will likely limit Johnson from any huge gains, it likely won’t put Johnson on an island either. Either way, the rest of the Bills receivers are going to need to step up.

Rex Ryan v. Duffs

You can’t seriously expect a guy with a gut and mouth as big as Ryan’s not to indulge a little bit and Buffalo’s famous wing joint. Hopefully he overdoes it and has greasy chicken wing hangover on Sunday, or expands his waistline to the point where he can’t fit challenge flags in his pockets. Employees of Duffs, you know what to do.